The Market in SIMPLE English: July 2009

Eagles,

I just caught this news article on the "incentive" on mortgage servicers to negotiate on a mortgage. Please go to this URL:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32217443

Chuck

Eagles,

Just out this morning - Housing Starts and Permits.

As we have covered these metrics in the past, "Housing Starts" is when a builder breaks ground on a new residential unit and "Housing Permits" is when a builder applies for to the building office to build a home. Typically a Building Permit is applied for a month to six months in front of the actual start of construction.

This morning, "Housing Starts" was UP 3.6% over last month, now tracking at 582,000 annual units. "Building Permits" was UP 8.7% now tracking at 563,000 annual units.

We are still way below our basic housing needs in our nation, remember over the past 40 years, our household formations has tracked an average 1.25 million per year, and in 2007, this number was 1.6 million.

The housing numbers does show further recovery in our economy, but we still have a way to go to be "normal" again.

Other morning news - Bank of America, Citibank and GE were all out with their financial numbers. SUPRISE to the investor community, these companies were expected to continue with losses, but instead - PROFITS!

Another sign of economic recovery!

With this being said - the 10 year bond yield is heading UP. After all, better economy, higher interest rates. Look for your morning mortgage rates to be up some.

As I keep saying - the second half of 2009 will continue to show improvement in our industry.

Thanks,

Chuck

For immediate release:

Contact:
Chuck Cornwell
RE/MAX Regency
540-341-1075
ChuckCornwell@remax.net

Local Real Estate Market Continues to Improve

July 2009

Warrenton, Virginia, July 3, 2009 - We are continuing to see the real estate market improve in the Washington DC metro area. 

ALL MRIS MARKET STATS

First, let's look at all of the local area MLS data.  Our MLS is one of the largest in the country and it covers many local markets.  To see the area, click here.

In June, we have seen a continuation of home prices on the rise.  Our Median List Price has moved back up to October 2008 .  See the chart here.  Our Month's Supply of homes is now down to a 4.9 month inventory.  Statistically, this is a balanced to a slight seller's market. See this chart here.  Also, note the trend.  We are seeing a tightening in the overall market.
 
Lastly for the stats on all of MRIS, see the Basic Absorption chart here.  You will need to compare this chart to the more local markets just to really understand how the local markets in Virginia have really tightened.

VIRGINIA MARKET STATS

Now let's look at the Virginia MRIS market area...

The median list price of our real estate is really jumping!!  In fact, in the last four months we have retraced our pricing back to January 2008 levels - pricing not seen in a year and a half!  See the chart here.  Wow, when the market starts to move, it REALLY moves. 

Why are we seeing this jump in prices?  Just look at our Months Supply of homes!  We are now down to 2.6 month supply.  See the chart here.  This market is a SELLERS market, limited inventory causes prices to go up.  Simple supply and demand rules.

You see this narrowing in the sales to new inventory here in the Basic Absorption chart for Virginia.

FAIRFAX COUNTY MARKET STATS

The real estate market in Fairfax County also continues to improve.  The Median List Price of residential real estate hit $464,900 last month, a level this market has not seen since July 2007.  See the chart here.  Inventory supplies of homes have now dropped to a 1.9 month's supply.  This puts the Fairfax market into a strong Sellers market.

The Basic Absorption Chart also shows how home sales are up and inventory levels are falling.

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY MARKET STATS

Here is a market area on the move, Prince William County.  Just look at this Median List Price Chart.  Pricing pressure will continue to escalate in this local market.  Just look at where our Month's Supply of homes is for last month - a 1.5 month's supply!  See the chart here.  This IS a SELLERS market.

Now here is where you really see the market has changed with the Basic Absorption Chart for Prince William County.  We are selling homes faster than they are going on the market.

LOUDOUN COUNTY MARKET STATS

Loudoun County also is seeing major improvement in its real estate market.  The median price in this area is now back to July 2007 levels as supplies of homes on the market continue to fall.  See the Median List Price Chart here.  The month's supply of homes is now down to 2.2 months.

The Basic Absorption Chart also shows how we continue to see our inventory of homes tighten, as our sales of home increase.


FAUQUIER COUNTY MARKET STATS

Now let's look at Fauquier County's stats.  The median price in this market is now back to October 2007.  See the chart here.  Our Month's Supply in this area is till with the entire regions numbers, at 5.4 months.  Fauquier is a smaller market area, and just a few properties make a large difference.  Here is the Months Supply chart. 

The Fauquier Basic Absorption Chart also shows market improvement. 

CULPEPER COUNTY MARKET STATS

Lastly, for this report, we will look at Culpeper County.  We are seeing price improvement in this market as well, as our median list price has now retraced back to October 2008 prices.  See the chart here.  The month's supply in this area has moved to a Sellers market with 4.7 months of inventory in this chart.  We are getting some new inventory of builder homes in this market area.  It only takes a few listings to effect this number as the market area is small, and this is exactly what we need to see to find stability in the market.

Lastly, we look at the Basic Absorption chart for this market area.  Here we see a continuation of a recovering and improving real estate market.

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Chuck Cornwell is the Broker and Co-Owner of RE/MAX Regency, a multi office real estate franchise company based in Warrenton, Virginia, and he is the Vice-President of the Greater Piedmont Area Association of REALTORS.  RE/MAX Regency has been recognized as a leading real estate company in the nation by industry publications including RIS Media's "2009 Power Broker Report" and being named a "Great Office" by RE/MAX International.

If you would like more information on this topic, or to schedule and interview with Chuck Cornwell, please call 540-341-1075 or e-mail to ChuckCornwell@remax.net