The Market in SIMPLE English

The S&P Case Shiller Housing Report was just released - CONTINUED GOOD NEWS!!

This mornings Case Shiller report is for the month of OCTOBER. In its 20 city composite, shows a 7.3% decline in home prices year over year. If you recall last year, it was in October 2008 that the Government hit the microphone and said we needed $700 Billion by Friday - or else. This freaked out our population, and we immediately saw a big drop in our business, and with it, home price declines. This number is reflective if this event, but since that time, we have seen home prices bottom.

WIth this report, we are seeing our home prices back to Fall 2003 pricing level. Our home prices did peak in the second quarter of 2006 and our bottom in this cycle happened in April 2009.

Isolating just the Washington DC city in this report, our year over year prices are only down 2.8%. The hardest hit market remains to Las Vegas, with a 26.6% year over year price drop, followed by Phoenix at 18.1%.

Remember, real estate is a LOCAL business. We are in a strong real estate market here locally. We are continuing with our lack of inventory - we are in a seller's market here with home prices on the rise here. We still need a little further home price improvement so our builders can get moving to meet our demand needs.

The S&P press release is here.

Please let me know what questions or comments you have.

Thanks,

Chuck

You must see this article if your involved in Short Sales!!!!!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091130/bs_nm/us_treasury_shortsales

Chuck

Did you know today is the final day of the 3rd quarter of 2009! Did you know this quarter is the BEST performing quarter for the stock market in over a decade! Did you know our local real estate prices are up - in some areas prices are back up to where they were TWO years ago.

Eagles,

Check out this link. It further helps explain our appraisal issues. If you are having a current appraisal issue on a transaction, this link would be good to forward to your client to explain the problem/process.

http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/archive/1/4909/

Thanks,

Chuck

Eagles,

Today is the big day - the Fed will complete a regularly scheduled two day Open Market Committee meeting and make an announcement at about 2:15pm today. I will let you know what I hear.

ALSO out this morning - another surprise for the markets - Durable Goods Orders JUMPED 1.8%.  Durable Goods are manufactured items that are expected to last three or more years.  Economist expected this number to be down. 

This is just more evidence of a rebouding economy!

The Mortgage Bankers Association also just released its Mortgage Applications Index. The index was UP 6.6% to a reading of 542.2 for the week of June 19.  This rise is on the heals of four straight weeks of declines as our mortgage interest rates have adjusted from it 4.5% low.

And finally today at 1pm, the Treasury will announce the refunding of maturing bonds.  Remember, we have a TON of debt for our nations economy coming to market this year.  I expect the Fed will be monitoring this as they are holding their Open Market Committee Meeting today.

More later.

Chuck

Eagles,

The National Association of REALTORS just released it's "Existing Home Sales" figures AND is "SOUNDING THE ALARMS" about appraisal issues.

First, the home sale numbers -

Existing home sales for MAY was UP 2.4% now tracking at 4.77 million annual sales - The percentage number is a seasonally number, so it does take in account the spring market.

The median home price - year over year - is down 16.8%

The supply of inventory of homes fell 3.5%

Months supply of inventory is now at 9.6 months nationally - Wish we had some of this supply in our area - not all, just some.

ALARM BELLS!!!!

NAR did state the REALTOR Association is SOUNDING THE ALARM BELLS over the newly implemented "Home Valuation Code of Conduct". This is the regulation that is requiring the "Middle Man" between the mortgage company and the appraiser. As you know, this middle man is taking a big cut of the appraisal fee, and so, we are getting out of area, low quality appraisals. This is not only an issue in our local market, but is a problem nation wide.

In the announcement, NAR is outlining that appraisals are coming in at unrealistic low values, and IS causing our industry additional problems.

With this said, PLEASE take a moment, if you have not already done so, to fill out the NAR survey on appraisals. This link came out from NAR last week and VAR also sent this out today. I have completed the survey, please do the same!!

Here is the link:

http://www.zoomerang.com/Survey/?p=WEB229C4JDNAYC

Thanks again, and please let me know if there is anything I can do to help you in your business.

Thanks,

Chuck

Eagles,

It's that time again - Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting!

The Fed today will begin a regularly scheduled two day meeting. The meeting will wrap up tomorrow and an announcement of the Fed decisions is released just at its conclusion. This announcement is expected around 2:15pm tomorrow.

Typically, after these announcements, we see our mortgage interest rates rise, for the short term. If you remember the last couple meetings, we have seen some surprise announcements from the Fed that were geared to prop up the real estate industry. Since we are beginning to see some recovery in our industry, and with the current level of stimulus and other plans in the works the Fed and Government has put in place, I doubt we will see any major announcement that would have our mortgage rates fall.

But the Fed has surprised me in the past.

Bottom line, if you have a buyer who has not locked in their loan, it may be advisable to have them talk to their lender, and lock in. There is an elevated risk for higher interest rates tomorrow afternoon.

Please let me know if you have any question or comments.

Thanks,

Chuck